Have you considered listening to the pretty extensive explanations they’ve given in this comments section as to why?
I was just entertaining a notion as I lack the skills to do an analysis like you did.
As for reading the other comments here, I have read them now, and they are interesting, but when I first commented, there were no other comments here and the post stood at -3.
Put another way, with proper crowd management people will not be dying in the first place and so there will be no trigger to start a panic.