Oh it’s going to be bad. Really bad. Microsoft said over a billion people were using Windows 10 & 11, but the vast majority of those were on machines that already ran Windows 7/8.1 just fine (and may have been upgraded forcefully).

They tried once to limit hardware compatibility as Intel was switching over to 10th gen by giving people a cut-off point where new versions of Windows 10 would not work on hardware older than Intel 8th gen, but it was so poorly received that they walked it back (and did it with Windows 11 instead).

An actual EOL is going to be very tough to pull off because everyone expects their computers to last more than three years now.

That will see more increases over time, especially as Windows 10 EOL approaches.