Scenario 2 would be significant but imo not the most significant news given that defence and intelligence communities have continually engaged the public with brazen psychological disinformation campaigns throughout recent history… this would be a particularly elaborate example of their regular shenanigans

And nothing keeps politicians dishonest like giant piles of money under the control of just a tiny handful of individuals, nothing keeps the media in line like those same piles of money and allowing journalists to schmooze a bit with the upper class, nothing keeps the public disengaged like a media landscape under the influence of capital.

But where capitalism is fettered there is tremendous incentive for any successful capitalist to… defetterate, that is to intervene politically to undo the restraints holding them back from making more money, and conversely to seek regulatory frameworks which restrain potential competitors. It’s possible to have markets and competition, arguably the only features of capitalism that are even a little good, under other systems.